Updated 9/8/2025
All of our local governments in the Triangle are approving rabid development based on the economy of a year ago. Now, we may be heading into a recession. Thousands of federal workers are being fired, the many non-profits in the triangle are being defunded, research grants for our major universities are being pulled, retirement accounts are unstable (look at stock market). You in Butner must surely know that your neighbors who work at the federal prison have already had their salaries cut (including my daughter). All of this means that the expected growth is very unlikely to happen. In fact, many families will have to move away from the Triangle as they won’t be able to pay their mortgages or the ridiculously increased property taxes. Most of the cheaply built housing being thrown up will stand vacant (there is already a 12% vacancy rates for apartments in Durham). Meanwhile, the deforestation and construction blasting damage to the environment are permanent. It’s time to pause and reconsider what “growth” can realistically be expected.
Below is my open letter to the Durham City Council. It was originally sent in February but is updated here. Consider sending your own to citycouncilonly@durhamnc.gov :
Mayor Williams and Councilmembers:
In 2020 the North Carolina Office of State Budget and Management (OSBM) projected that by 2050, 148,347 more people will live in Durham than lived in Durham in 2020. Based on that projection the OSBM calculated that between 2020 and 2050 Durham would need 60,000 to 66,000 additional housing units. Doing the math, an average of 2,000 to 2,200 new housing units per year should be built in Durham over the thirty year period ending in 2050. In other words, Durham needs about 11,000 new units every five years to keep up with the anticipated population growth.
The pace of development in Durham far exceeds the OSBM’s projected population growth over thirty years. According to the OSBM figures, development applications proposing approximately 2,100 new housing units should be approved each year starting in 2020.
Keep in mind that most development applications are approved within the planning department with no input from the Council or the public, and often without any notice to Council or public. It is difficult to obtain numbers on the administratively approved applications. I was advised by the planning department that I would have to sift through all applications and count the number of building permits issued. I don’t think my life expectancy allows me to take on that task. However, I know the number of administrative approvals exceeds the number approved through public hearings, probably several times over.
The Council approved the following number of units in 2020 through 2024.
2020 – 3,143 units
2021 – 4,049
2022 – 4155
2023 – 6,478
2024 – 3940
2025 – 6197 January through September 2
Total approved by Council: 26,046 as of 9/2/2025
Conservatively estimating the administratively approved units to be equal to the approvals by vote, the total approved new units in Durham is almost 48,000, or over four times the OSBM calculated need for five years. A realistic estimate of administratively approved units is at least twice the number subjected to Council vote. If that is so, the entire OSBM projected need of 60,000-66,000 new units has been exceeded in the first five of the thirty year projected need.
It’s time for the Council to pause and reflect on these figures. The much touted influx of new residents will almost certainly be less than calculated in 2020. Thousands of federal workers and contractors, who constitute a substantial percentage of high end employees in the Triangle have been or soon will be laid off. Others have had their salaries slashed. The universities and other employers have imposed a hiring freeze. Some major player businesses have pulled out of their Durham expansion plans or reduced their expected workforce. Remote working, unheard of before 2020, is standard operating procedure. Retirees are seeing their 401K accounts in flux and are worried about social security and medicare. A recession is expected by many economic experts. These are all realities that things have changed for the worse.
It seems as though our electeds don’t understand that Durham has many times more housing units built and in the pipeline than is needed. A majority of the council is acting under a false sense of crisis, fostered by a development community which has created and exploited an unwarranted urgency. Meanwhile, thousands of acres of our climate protecting woods have been leveled, blasting has ruined neighborhood wells, and our waterways are dangerously polluted.
Take a break. Proceed with caution. Consider protecting Durham rather than selling her out.
–